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Debosmita Ghosh • 26 Nov 2024
Study Reports Drop In HIV Infections By 22%, HIV-related Deaths By 40%
Drop In HIV Infections By 22, HIV-related Deaths By 40
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A new study published in The Lancet HIV journal found that new HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infections have dropped by 22% and HIV-related deaths have dropped by 40% globally. This report also highlights the progress made in fighting HIV. However, it also serves as a reminder for governments, organisations and others that the world is not on track to meet the UNAIDS 2030 targets.
The researchers said that regional variation in HIV shows that the countries are not on track to reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% by 2030. The study found that the number of people living with HIV is expected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease to 43.4 million people by 2050.
The study also revealed that at least 1 million people get infected with HIV each year and the virus continues to be a major cause of mortality in many countries, according to a report in Hindustan Times. The authors say that of the estimated 40 million people living with HIV, only about three-quarters are currently on treatment.
The authors in a background to the study said, “Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally.”
The study says that the global decline in HIV numbers is due to the drop in cases in sub-Saharan Africa wherein the chances of getting infected over a lifetime has fallen by 60% since its peak in 1995.
However, cases of HIV infections are on the rise in central Europe, eastern Europe and central Asia, where the lifetime probability of HIV acquisition increased by 586.4% from 1995 to 2021 and the number of people living with HIV without suppressed levels of the virus increased by 116.1% from 2003 to 2021.
For the study, the authors used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age- and sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021).
The authors said, “We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data.”
The authors said that this analysis, to the best of their knowledge, has provided the first global estimates of the period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition and PUV (unsuppressed viral load). They have set a series of recommendations in the paper to sustain and invigorate the global HIV response.
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